KYIV — The war between Ukraine and Russia has entered a new and punishing phase, one fought not only on the battlefield but across pipelines, refineries, and power grids. As both sides escalate attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, the fallout is being felt far beyond the front lines, with gas shortages spreading across Russia and Ukraine and economic pain rippling into Europe as winter approaches.
Almost 900 miles from Ukraine’s borders, a fire erupted at a Russian oil refinery in Bashkortostan over the weekend, the third such blaze at the facility in a month. Ukrainian security officials claimed responsibility, saying long‑range drones had struck the Ufa refinery, one of Russia’s largest. Video from the scene showed thick black smoke rising into the sky, a stark symbol of Kyiv’s strategy to hit Moscow where it hurts most: its energy sector. The attack was part of a broader campaign that has intensified since the summer, with Ukrainian forces targeting oil depots, gas processing plants, and pumping stations deep inside Russian territory.
For Russia, the strikes have created gasoline shortages in several regions, forcing rationing at filling stations and prompting the Kremlin to impose temporary export bans. For Ukraine, the retaliation has been equally severe. In recent weeks, Russia has unleashed some of its heaviest bombardments of the war against Ukraine’s energy grid, striking natural gas facilities, power plants, and transmission lines. The state‑owned energy company Naftogaz reported more than 100 strikes on its infrastructure this year alone, with October 3 marking the largest single assault on its gas production sites since the conflict began.
A War Over Energy
The energy war is not new, but its intensity has escalated dramatically. Russia has long used energy as a weapon, cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine and leveraging its role as Europe’s main supplier to exert political pressure. Ukraine, for its part, has sought to disrupt Russia’s ability to fund its war machine by striking oil and gas facilities that generate billions in export revenue.
The result is a grinding contest of attrition. Ukraine’s drone strikes have forced Russia to divert resources to defend facilities far from the front lines, while Russia’s missile and drone barrages have plunged Ukrainian cities into darkness and left millions facing another winter of uncertainty. In Chernihiv and Kharkiv, residents have endured rolling blackouts after repeated attacks on substations. In Kyiv, officials have warned of rationing and appealed for international assistance to repair damaged infrastructure.
The economic consequences are mounting. In Russia, gasoline shortages have driven up prices and angered motorists, particularly in rural regions where supplies are thin. The Kremlin has sought to downplay the problem, but analysts say the disruptions are significant. “These strikes are not symbolic,” said Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They are creating real bottlenecks in Russia’s refining capacity and forcing the government to make difficult choices between domestic needs and export commitments.”
In Ukraine, the damage to Naftogaz facilities has cut into domestic production, forcing the country to draw more heavily on reserves and increase imports from European neighbors. That, in turn, has pushed up regional gas prices, though abundant global liquefied natural gas supplies have helped cushion the blow. Still, the financial strain on Kyiv is severe. Repairing energy infrastructure is costly, and the government is already stretched thin by military spending and declining tax revenues.
Europe Caught in the Middle
Europe, though less dependent on Russian gas than before the war, is not immune to the fallout. The European Union has scrambled to diversify supplies since 2022, importing record volumes of LNG from the United States, Qatar, and Norway. But Ukraine’s increased demand for imports, combined with Russia’s export restrictions, has tightened the market. Analysts warn that a prolonged disruption could send prices higher, particularly if the winter is colder than expected.
European officials are also worried about the broader geopolitical implications. “Energy has become the second front of this war,” said Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, during a visit to Kyiv on Monday. “Russia is trying to break Ukraine’s resilience by targeting its infrastructure, while Ukraine is striking back at the heart of Russia’s economy. The consequences are being felt across our continent.”
The EU has pledged additional aid to help Ukraine repair its grid and secure emergency fuel supplies. But officials acknowledge that the scale of the damage is daunting. In some regions, transformers and turbines destroyed by Russian strikes cannot be replaced quickly, leaving communities vulnerable to prolonged outages. Aid groups warn that hospitals, schools, and water systems could face critical shortages if attacks continue.
A Winter of Uncertainty
For ordinary Ukrainians, the prospect of another winter under bombardment is grim. In Kharkiv, residents have stocked up on firewood and generators, fearing a repeat of last year’s blackouts. In Kyiv, families are bracing for rationing and higher heating bills. “We survived last winter, but it was very hard,” said Olena, a mother of two in the capital. “This year, we don’t know if we will have electricity or gas when it gets cold.”
In Russia, too, the shortages are biting. Long lines have formed at gas stations in some regions, and social media has been filled with complaints about rationing. The government has sought to reassure the public, but the disruptions have highlighted the vulnerability of Russia’s energy system to Ukrainian strikes.
Both sides appear determined to press their campaigns. Ukrainian officials argue that hitting Russian energy facilities is a legitimate way to weaken Moscow’s war effort. Russian leaders insist that their strikes on Ukraine’s grid are aimed at military infrastructure, though the impact on civilians is undeniable.
The escalation underscores the difficulty of finding a path to peace. Even as international mediators push for negotiations, the energy war has become a central feature of the conflict, one that neither side seems willing to abandon. For Ukraine, the strikes are a way to level the playing field against a larger adversary. For Russia, the bombardments are a tool to sap Ukraine’s resilience and test Europe’s resolve.
As the war grinds on, the costs are mounting. Economists warn that prolonged energy disruptions could shave points off GDP growth in both countries and strain European economies already grappling with inflation and sluggish growth. The human toll, meanwhile, continues to rise, with millions facing another winter of hardship.
For now, the energy war shows no sign of abating. Each strike on a refinery or power plant deepens the cycle of retaliation, pushing both nations further into a conflict where pipelines and power lines are as much targets as tanks and trenches. And as the cold sets in, the battle over energy may prove as decisive as any fought on the front lines.
Reporting by Nick Ravenshade. Original analysis by NENC Media Group.
Sources: CNN, Reuters, RFE/RL, Al Jazeera, EnergyNow, U.S. News.
Photo: Jacob McGowin / Unsplash
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