ExxonMobil’s Secret Talks With Rosneft Signal Potential Return to Russia

ExxonMobil has engaged in discreet discussions with Russia’s state energy giant Rosneft about rejoining the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project, more than three years after its abrupt departure following President Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The backchannel talks, led by Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman and Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, underscore a dramatic shift in commercial and diplomatic calculus, intertwining energy security considerations with ongoing Ukraine peace negotiations. These conversations have proceeded under the radar, with only a handful of senior executives from both sides aware of the full scope of discussions.

Laying the Groundwork: Exxon’s 2022 Exit and Asset Impairment

Prior to its withdrawal in early 2022, Exxon held a 30 percent stake in Sakhalin-1, one of its flagship Arctic projects, alongside Rosneft, India’s ONGC Videsh and Japan’s SODECO. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, ExxonMobil announced its immediate exit, accusing Moscow of expropriating its share and writing down over $4 billion in related assets. The project’s output plunged from roughly 220,000 barrels per day to near zero, marking a sharp reversal for an operation that had underpinned Exxon’s long-term reserves strategy in the Far East of Russia.

Behind Closed Doors: The Doha Negotiations

In February 2025, Chapman flew to Doha for a confidential meeting with Sechin—himself under stringent US sanctions—where the two explored the contours of Exxon’s potential re-entry. Participants from both firms were strictly limited to senior leadership, reflecting the sensitivity of re-engaging in a sanctioned jurisdiction. During the same period, ExxonMobil’s CEO Darren Woods privately raised the topic with President Donald Trump, and company executives secured licenses from the US Treasury to communicate with sanctioned Russian counterparts on matters related to frozen assets.

Political and Regulatory Winds Shift

A key facilitator of these talks was President Putin’s August 15, 2025 decree restoring the legal framework for foreign ownership in the Russian entity that assumed control of Sakhalin-1 after Exxon’s exit. The amendment removed one of the most significant legal barriers, provided Exxon commits to supplying critical offshore equipment and spare parts and assists in lobbying for Western sanctions relief. Concurrently, US envoy Steve Witkoff’s August visit to Moscow became a de facto platform for energy-for-peace bargaining, with Washington offering tacit support for select commercial engagements—including Exxon's potential return—in exchange for Kremlin concessions on Ukraine’s conflict resolution.

Market Stakes and Global Implications

For ExxonMobil, reestablishing a foothold in Sakhalin-1 offers a chance to recoup a substantial portion of its multi-billion-dollar write-down and revive access to significant Arctic reserves. Rosneft and the Russian government, facing mounting fiscal pressures from prolonged conflict and dwindling Western investment, view Exxon’s return as a vital infusion of technical expertise and capital. On the global stage, the restoration of up to 220,000 barrels per day of Sakhalin-1 output could alleviate supply constraints in Asia—particularly for refiners in China and India that have absorbed volumes shunned by Europe—while setting a precedent for other Western energy majors monitoring the evolving sanction landscape.

Analysis

ExxonMobil’s cautious bid to re-engage in Russia reveals a high-stakes strategic balancing act. On one hand, the Sakhalin-1 venture represents one of the last untapped, high-quality megaprojects in the Arctic, aligning with Exxon’s ambition to shore up its long-term production profile amid a decarbonizing world. On the other hand, any tangible progress risks igniting a backlash from human-rights advocates, European partners and US lawmakers wary of normalizing business ties with Moscow while Ukraine remains at war.

This episode illustrates the broader paradox of energy diplomacy: when geopolitical standoffs limit supply, commercial actors and governments often circle back to the very partners they once shunned. The US government’s discreet issuance of Treasury licenses and private encouragement from senior policymakers signal an emergent pragmatism—deploying market incentives to coax substantive movement toward a Ukraine settlement. Yet, true re-entry hinges on two indeterminate variables: firm legal guarantees from Moscow against future asset seizures and demonstrable momentum in peace talks that have stalled for months.

Looking Ahead

As negotiations progress, watch for three critical developments: whether ExxonMobil can negotiate contractual safeguards protecting its equity stake; if the US and EU alter or grant carve-outs in their sanction regimes; and whether any breakthrough in Ukraine peace diplomacy transforms Sakhalin-1 from a symbolic bargaining chip into a fully operational asset. The outcome will not only reshape Exxon’s portfolio but also offer a bellwether for the post-war contours of global energy cooperation and the extent to which commerce can serve as a conduit for geopolitical détente.