“Partners, Not Rivals”: Modi and Xi Signal a New Thaw as SCO Summit Brings Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi Together

“Partners, Not Rivals”: Modi and Xi Signal a New Thaw as SCO Summit Brings Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi Together

In a high-stakes diplomatic moment at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin on Sunday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping sought to reset a fractious bilateral relationship — declaring that the two Asian giants are “development partners, not rivals” and pledging to take steps to ease tensions on a disputed Himalayan border and bolster trade ties. The meeting, which comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin joined other leaders in China for the summit, signals Beijing and New Delhi are trying to manage differences even as each pursues competing strategic priorities. 

Modi told Xi that India is “committed to improving ties” and discussed ways to tackle a ballooning bilateral trade deficit — a subject of intense domestic political focus in New Delhi — while both leaders stressed the need to keep the peace along a border still scarred by the 2020 clashes that led to a prolonged military standoff. Chinese state media and the Indian government’s readout described the exchange as constructive, with both sides saying differences should not be allowed to become disputes.

Symbolism and substance on show in Tianjin

The optics were unmistakable: Xi personally welcomed Modi on the sidelines of a block chiefly dominated by China and Russia, conveying Beijing’s desire to lessen bilateral frictions with India even as both capitals compete for influence across Asia and beyond. The SCO gathering, hosted by Xi, also brought in Putin and leaders from across Eurasia — a showcase for China’s push to shape a more multipolar order and offer an alternative forum to Western-led institutions.

India’s decision to sit alongside Beijing and Moscow in Tianjin occurs against a fraught background. Modi’s government has cultivated deeper strategic ties with the United States and other democracies in recent years, but it is also sensitive to immediate economic pressures — including steep U.S. tariffs announced this month that hit Indian exporters. Those tariffs, and broader global turbulence in trade, underscore why New Delhi is pressing Beijing on trade imbalances even as it seeks to avoid renewed kinetic confrontation at the border.

What the leaders actually said

According to joint readouts and reporting by state and independent outlets, Xi framed the relationship in developmental terms — urging economic cooperation and steady progress — while Modi reiterated India’s interest in resolving differences through dialogue and lowering the bilateral trade deficit that New Delhi says has swelled to roughly $99 billion in recent accounting. Both sides reportedly agreed to resume working-level talks aimed at disengagement and confidence-building along the Line of Actual Control, the de-facto boundary that has been the friction point for years. 

Chinese and Indian officials also flagged practical deliverables: restarting trade and economic working groups, exploring measures to reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers, and stepping up people-to-people exchanges that both capitals argue will underpin longer-term stability. Indian and Chinese foreign ministries emphasized that diplomacy — not force — should govern the management of disputes. 

Why the rapprochement matters — and what it does not fix

At first glance, the Modi–Xi handshake looks like a diplomatic win for both leaders: Xi gains a public easing with a major regional power at a summit Beijing is using to promote an alternative global architecture; Modi demonstrates New Delhi’s ability to pursue autonomy in foreign affairs while protecting India’s economic interests. But the meeting is best understood as risk management rather than a full strategic pivot.

For India, the calculus is delicate. New Delhi wants to preserve its security partnerships with the U.S. and other democracies — including defence cooperation and technology ties — while avoiding a second front of hostility with China that would complicate its regional ambitions. Domestic politics also push Modi to extract tangible economic concessions from Beijing: reducing the trade deficit and opening markets to Indian goods are priorities he must show to voters and exporters. 

For China, calming the India front reduces the chance of a costly standoff at its western periphery and allows Beijing to concentrate on economic recovery, its global trade agenda and a major military parade planned this week. A managed relationship with New Delhi also helps Xi present the SCO as a functioning multilateral platform and dilutes criticism that China is isolating partners through coercive diplomacy.

The Russia factor

That the meeting took place with Putin already in Tianjin adds a geopolitical overlay. Moscow’s presence amplifies the summit’s signal that a bloc of Eurasian powers is coalescing around shared grievances with the West — notably over sanctions and trade disputes — and is comfortable coordinating in public settings. Russia has courted closer ties with both Beijing and New Delhi amid its continued estrangement from Western capitals; yet India’s relations with Russia are transactional and long-standing, not an automatic alliance. Modi’s balancing act — engaging Moscow while reassuring Washington — is now playing out on a large stage.

Obstacles that remain

Despite the warm words, substantive obstacles persist. The Line of Actual Control remains only partially demarcated; troop deployments and infrastructure expansion on both sides make accidental clashes a continued risk. Trade adjustments are politically sensitive: China’s market access commitments have historically been difficult to translate into rapid export gains for India, and New Delhi’s efforts to reduce its trade deficit may require painful domestic reforms or reciprocal market openings that are slow to deliver. Lastly, broader strategic mistrust — especially in sensitive sectors like critical technology and data — cannot be erased by a single leaders’ meeting.

Analysis — balancing pragmatism and realpolitik

The Modi–Xi exchange in Tianjin is less about friendship than pragmatism. Both capitals face domestic and international incentives to manage, rather than exacerbate, their differences. For Modi, pragmatism means protecting India’s economic growth and export base while keeping China from dominating South Asian geopolitics. For Xi, it means containing flashpoints that could derail Beijing’s broader strategy of economic stabilization and global leadership projection.

But pragmatism has limits. If either side interprets the rapprochement as a blank cheque — assuming that economic cooperation now trumps security competition — it risks sowing the seeds for future breakdown. The safer interpretation is that the meeting establishes a temporary set of guardrails: working groups will reopen, talks will resume, and public rhetoric will cool. That reduces the odds of immediate escalation but does not resolve the structural competition between two continental powers whose interests collide in multiple theatres.

What to watch next

• Whether Beijing and New Delhi publish a joint roadmap for working-level disengagement and concrete trade measures. 

• Any follow-up ministerial or military-to-military talks to operationalize border confidence-building steps. 

• Reactions in Washington and Tokyo, where partners will watch closely to see if India’s strategic autonomy is translating into a sustained recalibration.

• The role of the SCO communique — whether India signs onto a united statement or issues reservations — as an indicator of how far New Delhi is willing to publicly align with China-led diplomacy.