Survey finds backing for strict immigration measures driven by misconceptions about migration numbers

Survey finds backing for strict immigration measures driven by misconceptions about migration numbers

YouGov’s new survey links extreme anti-immigrant attitudes to widespread misunderstandings about the scale of illegal migration in the UK.

Many Britons dramatically overestimate how much irregular migration contributes to overall net migration, which hit a record 900,000 in the year to June 2023.

This misperception is driven in part by intense media and political focus on small-boat crossings. In reality, arrivals via small vessels never exceeded 46,000 in 2022, though the total is poised to edge above that this year.

While the most popular position—favored by both Labour and the Conservatives—is to sharply reduce overall migration yet continue admitting some newcomers, nearly half of voters (26% strongly, 19% somewhat) endorse a policy of admitting no new migrants and deporting large numbers who arrived in recent years. YouGov calls support for mass departures of settled migrants “extraordinary,” noting that no mainstream politician has backed such a stance in a decade.

The poll also reveals that 47% of respondents believe there are more people in the UK illegally than legally, whereas only 19% recognize that lawful migration far outnumbers unauthorized arrivals—even if the highest estimates of illegal migrants (around 1.2 million) are accepted. 

YouGov’s analysis shows that those who mistakenly think illegal migration predominates are far more likely to back mass deportations. “Nearly half of Britons believe there are more migrants residing in the UK illegally than legally,” says Matthew Smith. “Crucially, 72% of that group favor mass deportations.” In truth, estimates of the UK’s unauthorized population range from roughly 120,000 to 1.3 million, compared with 10.7 million foreign-born residents recorded by the 2021–22 census.

Although numerical ignorance correlates with hardline views, YouGov cautions that correcting these misconceptions won’t eliminate all immigration concerns. Many still consider legal migration levels too high, and a sizeable minority believe that even those who arrived lawfully have not fully integrated.

Ultimately, public unease extends beyond economic impacts to deeper worries about identity, cohesion, and shared values. PoliticsHome editor Alan White called the findings “a monumental failure of our political class to educate, [and] a monumental failure of our media to report fairly, for a generation.”