The key detail Donald Trump is omitting about his tariff policy

The key detail Donald Trump is omitting about his tariff policy

Despite claims from the White House that the US economy is thriving—with inflation vanquished and employment surging—recent data paint a far more turbulent picture. This week’s releases on the administration’s first six months in charge reveal strong GDP headlines offset by erratic trade swings and a clear deceleration in hiring. President Trump has spent the period waging an unprecedented tariff campaign, slapping steep levies on allies and rivals alike to force trade concessions.

Relatively Resilient Growth  

In the second quarter, GDP rebounded at its fastest pace since last summer, reversing a shock contraction in Q1. Yet that upswing masked a staggering 15.6% plunge in private domestic investment, as businesses struggled to adapt to the barrage of looming tariffs. Over the six-month span, the economy has expanded a modest 1.2%, a figure so tepid that one financial outlet dubbed it “the strangest GDP report ever.”

Imports surge and plunge  

Tariff threats drove firms to front-load imports in Q1, triggering an unprecedented import boom that actually pushed headline growth into negative territory. When the president then escalated duties, imports collapsed just as quickly in Q2—turning net exports from a drag into a major growth contributor.

Even as President Trump publicly demands rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has held its policy rate steady. Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues insist on waiting to assess the full impact of tariffs on prices and activity—a stance that has reportedly frustrated White House aides.  

Job creation has all but stalled. July’s figures fell well short of expectations, and prior months’ gains were revised downward by a total of 258,000 positions. “This jobs report is not ideal,” admitted White House economic adviser Stephen Miran, while expressing hope that reduced policy uncertainty will revive hiring.