Pfizer, Moderna Shares Slide After Report Trump Officials Will Link COVID Shots to Child Deaths

Pfizer, Moderna Shares Slide After Report Trump Officials Will Link COVID Shots to Child Deaths

Shares of major COVID-19 vaccine makers tumbled on Friday after reports that senior officials in the Trump administration plan to present a slide to U.S. vaccine advisers asserting a link between COVID-19 shots and the deaths of about two dozen children. The disclosures — driven in large part by analyses of reports logged in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) — set off immediate market jitters and renewed fierce debate among scientists, public-health officials and politicians over vaccine safety and the appropriate use of preliminary surveillance data.

The Washington Post first reported that Health and Human Services officials intend to tell the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s vaccine advisory committee that roughly 25 child deaths are associated with COVID-19 vaccination, citing four people familiar with the matter. That account said the administration plans to rely heavily on items pulled from VAERS, a public, self-reporting database that U.S. health experts and regulators routinely use only as an early warning system rather than proof of causation.

Financial markets reacted swiftly. Stocks of Moderna, Pfizer and BioNTech fell sharply on the news as traders reassessed regulatory and demand risks for the fall COVID booster campaign; several market pages reported single-day declines in the high single digits for some vaccine makers. Analysts said the moves reflected both the immediate headline shock and concern about how any change in CDC recommendations could ripple through payer coverage, school-vaccination rules and commercial demand.

Company responses were measured. Moderna pushed back, reiterating that its Spikevax vaccine has been subject to global regulatory review and that no new safety signals for children had been identified by regulators in multiple countries; Pfizer and BioNTech declined to comment publicly in the immediate aftermath of the reports. Corporate spokespeople emphasised that VAERS captures unverified reports that require follow-up investigation. 

Public-health experts and vaccine scientists warned against drawing causal inferences from raw VAERS tallies. VAERS is intentionally broad to capture any adverse event that occurs after vaccination — including events unrelated to vaccines such as accidents, congenital conditions or sudden infant death syndrome — and both regulators and epidemiologists typically review medical records, death certificates and autopsy findings before concluding causation. Several career scientists interviewed by reporters called the administration’s reported approach “alarming,” saying it risked politicizing surveillance data and undermining public confidence in established vaccine-safety systems.

The report arrives amid a fraught policy environment. Since taking office, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — a longstanding vaccine critic — has trimmed routine COVID-vaccine recommendations for healthy children and reshaped the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel, moves that have already prompted resignations from some federal scientists and concern from medical societies. The advisory committee is scheduled to meet later this month, making the timing of the administration’s planned presentation especially consequential for forthcoming guidance on who will be eligible for fall booster doses. 

Regulatory officials acknowledged investigations are under way but cautioned that raw reports do not equal proof. U.S. Food and Drug Administration officials have said they are reviewing mortality reports and continuing routine safety monitoring; recent public comments from senior regulators stressed the need for careful clinical review of each case before reaching conclusions. The Department of Health and Human Services declined to comment beyond saying officials routinely share safety information with advisory panels. 

The political and programmatic implications are wide. If CDC advisers accept a presentation that frames the VAERS reports as evidence of a vaccine link, the agency could tighten recommendations for pediatric use — a change that insurers, school systems and public-health programs would then have to operationalize. That could shrink demand for updated mRNA boosters and complicate manufacturers’ autumn distribution plans, with knock-on effects for revenue and for public-health campaigns that rely on high coverage to blunt seasonal surges.

Analysis — data, process and trust are at stake

Friday’s developments underscore a broader tension that has dogged COVID-era vaccine policy: how to balance rapid transparency about possible harms against the scientific discipline needed to establish causation. VAERS is indispensable as a signal-detection tool, but public health depends on transparent, methodical follow-up and clear communication. Presenting unvetted counts to an advisory committee risks politicizing the deliberative process and could erode confidence in both surveillance systems and recommended vaccines — even where subsequent clinical review finds no causal link. 

What to watch next: the written materials the administration submits to the CDC advisory committee; any preliminary medical-record reviews or autopsy results that accompany VAERS summaries; formal statements from the FDA and CDC clarifying what is known and unknown; and market moves in vaccine makers as traders digest whether a change in U.S. policy will affect global demand. Given the speed of headlines and the sensitivity of the subject, officials and scientists will be under heavy pressure to separate verified facts from raw reports and to explain their methods to a skeptical public.